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| Рад видеть Вас в своем ЖЖ. Это личный блог Георгия Плащинского. Здесь я пишу обо всем, что связано с Беларусью, политикой, культурой и образованием, а также о многом другом. Пожалуйста, поучаствуйте в опросе ниже. Это поможет журналу стать интереснее!
( Чытаць болей... )Здесь же следуют ссылки на разнообразные статьи и размышления, которые были опубликованы в этом ЖЖ раньше. Читайте и комментируйте! ( Чытаць болей... ) | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about the European Dialogue on Modernization for Belarus, Eastern Partnership, economic situation in the country and pro-European reforms:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka highlighted the need to modernise Belarusian economy in his annual speech for the national Parliament on 8 May. These words coincide with an goal of a new EU project "Dialogue on Modernization for Belarus". But the two sides see the process of modernization quite differently. Minsk wants to avoid any political reforms while the EU is ready to provide financial assistance only after the release of all political prisoners. Despite Lukashenka's bravura rhetoric, reforms in Belarus are inevitable as the country will be forced to become a WTO member soon. Moreover, Russia guaranteed Belarus beneficial oil and gas supplies only for the next 3-4 years. It means that the country may have the last change to conduct necessary reforms before another deep crisis hits its Soviet-style economy in 2015-2016. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about prospects of European and Eurasian integration for Belarus, oil export and free trade areas:The Ambassadors of Poland, Lithuania and Sweden have returned to Minsk and their colleagues are on the way to the Belarusian capital. It seems that EU-Belarus relations have broken the deadlock, but they remain difficult and the EU has few carrots to offer its restive authoritarian neighbour. Unlike countries like Moldova and Armenia, Belarus is increasingly integrating into the Eurasian Economic Union without any serious interest in European integration. The reason for this is oil and its financial dependence on Russia. If the EU wants to establish democracy in Belarus, it should offer a comprehensive package of assistance in reforms. But even if Belarus decides to take European path, it will take at least 3-4 years to reach the same level of relations as exists with Georgia or Ukraine. And there are plenty of obstacles: from WTO membership to an obligation to secure permission from the yet to be established Eurasian Commission. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about the causes of release of Sannikaw and Bandarenka, Russian pressure on Lukashenka and what the EU could do to prevent Lukashenka from putting other political opponents into prison:Former Belarusian presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov and his main campaign aide Dzmitry Bandarenka have been released from prison on the eve of the Christian Orthodox Easter. It looks like the first step in the de-escalation of the worst EU-Belarus conflict in history. It is likely that expectations of Vladimir Putin’s pressure after his re-election contributed more to the long-awaited release of these two political prisoners, rather than the EU sanctions. At least 13 opposition activists still remain in prison and almost nothing prevents Lukashenka from taking new hostages for his dialogue with the EU. The EU needs a long-term and consistent strategy based on the support of Belarusian civil society and increasing contacts with Belarusian officials and businessmen. This will contribute to the long-term transformation of the country much better than sanctions alone. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about Belarus-Lithuania cooperation, Lithuanian economic interests in Belarus, Bialiatski case and the future of bilateral relations:Belarusians and Lithuanians have a long common history which started long before the Grand Duchy of Lithuania 500 years ago. Two nations followed clearly divergent paths only after the collapse of the Soviet Union. When Lukashenka came to power, he recognised the state border of Lithuania and thus prevented the main source of possible tension between two countries. Lithuania hosts many Belarusian exile organisations including the European Humanities University but remains cautious about economic sanctions. It supports liberalisation of visa regime for Belarusians but was guilty of leaking information to Belarusian authorities which led to imprisonment of human rights activist Ales’ Bialiatski. Two countries cannot agree on several issues, including Belarusian nuclear power plant, but overall their relations remain remarkably pragmatic. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about EU sanctions against Belarusian businessmen and their consequences for the Belarusian economy and the future of Belarus:The EU Council of Ministers recently introduced new restrictive measures against Belarusian businessmen and 29 companies that allegedly support the Belarusian regime. For the first time the EU added so many Belarusian enterprises to its ban list. European politicians expect that it will help release political prisoners in Belarus. But in practise, it may lead to further deterioration of the human rights situation in the country and cause long-lasting distortions in the Belarusian economy. Both adherents and opponents of sanctions agree that political prisoners should be free, but they view differently how to achieve this goal. While some experts emphasise the moral importance of sanctions, others believe that they are hypocritical and harmful. They think that the EU is losing its leverage in the country and forces its authorities and businessmen to deal more with authoritarian states such as Russia. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about Belarus-Ukraine relations in the geopolitical context:
This month the EU External Action faced a stubborn unwillingness of two post-Soviet countries to listen to its advice on political reforms. As the diplomatic scandal unfolded in Minsk, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry protested against the behaviour of the EU Ambassador to Ukraine. At the same time, Belarus and Ukraine are under increasing pressure from Moscow to participate in its new integration initiatives. Victor Yanukovich even promised to make Russian the second official language in Ukraine.
These developments should motivate Belarus and Ukraine to actively cooperate on the basis of common interests. But instead the two countries often clash with each other. For example, in March Ukraine prohibited imports of Belarusian meat and dairy products. It raises a question whether Victor Yanukovich and Alexander Lukashenka have enough political will to improve their relations and strengthen sovereignty of their countries. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about the background of the Belarus-EU diplomatic conflict:EU travel ban against 20 Belarusian officials provoked extravagant behaviour of Belarusian authorities which analysts are still struggling to explain. On 28 February Belarus asked Polish and ambassadors to leave the country. The EU response was strong and equally unexpected: it recalled all its ambassadors from Minsk in a sign of solidarity. This confrontation wasted another opportunity to restart the EU-Belarus engagement dialogue. It may also negatively affect the human rights situation in the country. Experts propose a variety of explanations of this conflict, from psychological reasons to the plot of Russians. But regardless of the explanation, the relations between the European Union and Belarus are now at the lowest point ever, which harms all parties involved. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about the sovereign credit rating of Belarus, its importance for foreign investments and external loans:On 21 February 2012 Belarusian finance minister Andrei Kharkovec announced Belarus plan to restore its positions in international ratings which suffered following the recent economic crisis. The state news agency Belta also announced that the main Chinese rating agency Dagong will give Belarus a sovereign credit rating in the near future. Authorities hope to use it in order to attract Asian investments into the Belarusian economy. European states and companies are reluctant to invest huge sums of money into the Belarusian economy which is still on the brink of economic collapse with its B- credit rating close to the Greek rating. Only consistent market reforms, renewal of cooperation with the IMF and large-scale privatisation of the state property may improve the situation. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about Belarusian political prisoners, geopolitical logic of their persecution and prospects of their release:Belarusian opposition activist Siarhei Kavalenka may soon die as a result of a 59-day hunger strike against his criminal prosecution. He and other 14 opposition and civil society activists remain in prisons for their political views. US and EU officials, including Hillary Clinton and Catherine Ashton, repeatedly called for a release of all political prisoners before any negotiations with Belarus on improvement of bilateral relations. However, Belarusian authorities are not keen to listen after Russia agreed to supply them oil and gas on extremely beneficial terms. Like other authoritarian rulers, Alexander Lukashenka tries to isolate potential leaders from different social backgrounds who might be dangerous for his grip on power. Authorities initiate administrative prosecution to suppress everyday activities and criminal cases usually target the most influential activists or organisations. The idea is that it would also deter others from attempts to damage the regime. Imprisonment and release of political prisoners seems to be linked to the election cycle in Belarus and Russia's economic subsidies. | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest about a new IMF loan for Belarus:"Therefore, Belarus is ready to overstep the absolute foreign public debt ceiling of $14.3 bln stipulated in the 2012 budget. Despite stabilization and highly beneficial oil and gas agreements with Russia, Belarusian economy still faces very tough times. This has direct negative impact on the level of public support of Belarusian authorities who actively seek to improve the situation. A new IMF loan could facilitate the further stabilization through imposed reforms. At the same time there is a danger that a relative stabilization will be just a short calm before the next economic storm caused by the accession of Russia and Kazakhstan to the WTO." | |
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|  My new article for BelarusDigest:On January 23 Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronis Ažubalis stated that the EU should be more open towards the ordinary Belarusians and increase pressure on the Belarusian regime. A year ago EU Commissioner Štefan Füle announced a “balanced approach” to overcome the harsh consequences of the 2010 post-election opposition crackdown in Belarus. However, in practice the EU imposes additional sanctions against Belarusian officials, but fails to offer new positive incentives to bring Belarusians significantly closer to the rest of Europe. Belarusian citizens have to undergo through the most cumbersome and expensive procedure in Europe when they apply for EU visas. This is ironic because according to the recently released data from the European Commission in 2010 Belarus was the absolute world leader in the per capita number of Schengen visas. That would seem like a good reason to trust Belarusians in visa matters and to abolish the EU visa regime completely or at least to dramatically liberalize it. | |
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| Dear friends, BelarusDigest is looking for new friends in Livejournal! Belarus Digest was launched in Washington, D.C. in 2008. Our authors write on Belarus from London, Boston, Berlin, Minsk and Moscow. Belarus Digest provides non-partisan analysis of Belarus-related events and publications. You can find our news and articles on http://belarusdigest.livejournal.com/ or on our website. You are welcome! | |
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| Опубликована моя статья для "Новой Европы" о результатах парламентских выборов в России и их последствиях для Беларуси: | |
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plaschinsky
Вышла моя статья про недавний кризис в белорусско-европейских отношениях в переводе на французский язык:
Опубликован мой анализ последствий президентских выборов в России для Беларуси и белорусско-российских отношений, который я подготовил для Белорусского института стратегических исследований (BISS).
Моя новая статья для BelarusDigest об эффективности (а точнее, неэффективности) европейских санкций в отношении Беларуси. Включайтесь в дискуссию!
Моя новая статья для "Belarusdigest" о том, как борьба за европейское будущее и права человека в Беларуси оборачивается возрастанием российского влияния в стране, а также о том, какие активы Россия имеет в Беларуси и что стремится приобрести в будущем: